Preseason Rankings
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
161 Iona 27.2%   16   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 10 14 - 6 0.0      +2.7 98 -2.7 248 75.8 39 0.0 1 0.0 1
180 Rider 19.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 13 - 7 -1.6      +0.7 149 -2.2 234 82.2 9 0.0 1 0.0 1
239 Monmouth 10.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 16 11 - 9 -4.4      -4.1 289 -0.3 170 68.7 178 0.0 1 0.0 1
251 Siena 8.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 11 - 9 -5.1      -3.6 279 -1.5 208 56.0 352 0.0 1 0.0 1
256 Quinnipiac 8.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 10 - 10 -5.3      -0.4 198 -4.9 309 66.8 230 0.0 1 0.0 1
259 Manhattan 8.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 10 - 10 -5.4      -6.4 330 +1.0 131 58.4 351 0.0 1 0.0 1
288 Fairfield 4.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 9 - 11 -7.1      -5.1 312 -2.0 228 69.9 148 0.0 1 0.0 1
295 Canisius 4.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 19 9 - 11 -7.7      -3.4 272 -4.3 295 68.8 173 0.0 1 0.0 1
307 St. Peter's 3.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 18 8 - 12 -8.4      -7.5 340 -0.9 193 60.5 344 0.0 1 0.0 1
315 Niagara 2.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 21 8 - 12 -9.1      -2.0 238 -7.1 345 73.8 66 0.0 1 0.0 1
328 Marist 1.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 19 7 - 13 -10.5      -6.3 329 -4.2 290 62.6 328 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Iona 3.0 36.6 20.0 12.8 9.2 6.7 5.0 3.6 2.7 1.8 1.1 0.5
Rider 3.5 25.6 19.3 14.2 11.2 8.6 6.6 5.0 3.8 2.8 2.0 1.0
Monmouth 4.8 12.2 12.7 13.2 12.4 10.8 10.0 8.3 7.4 5.7 4.4 2.8
Siena 5.3 9.8 11.1 11.8 11.5 11.1 10.2 9.3 8.6 7.0 5.7 3.8
Quinnipiac 5.4 9.5 11.0 11.3 11.4 11.0 10.3 9.2 8.4 7.4 5.9 4.6
Manhattan 5.4 9.2 10.9 11.0 10.8 10.9 10.3 9.8 8.7 7.6 6.2 4.5
Fairfield 6.3 5.6 7.2 8.6 8.7 10.2 10.7 10.8 10.8 10.4 9.3 7.7
Canisius 6.6 4.5 6.3 7.2 8.8 9.6 10.2 10.6 11.3 11.5 10.6 9.3
St. Peter's 7.0 3.5 5.2 6.7 7.6 8.7 9.6 11.1 11.3 12.1 12.2 12.0
Niagara 7.4 2.7 4.0 5.3 6.7 8.1 9.6 10.5 11.3 12.9 14.5 14.5
Marist 8.0 1.6 2.5 3.6 5.0 6.3 7.8 9.5 11.3 14.0 16.7 21.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Iona 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.9 2.9 3.9 5.4 7.0 8.6 10.2 11.0 12.0 11.5 9.6 7.5 4.3 1.8
Rider 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.9 2.9 4.4 5.4 7.3 8.8 9.7 11.4 11.1 10.7 9.0 7.2 4.7 2.4 0.9
Monmouth 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.0 2.7 4.1 6.0 7.7 9.0 9.8 10.8 10.4 9.8 8.4 6.8 5.0 3.4 1.7 0.7 0.2
Siena 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.4 3.8 5.4 6.9 8.4 9.8 10.4 10.4 9.9 8.6 7.2 5.6 4.1 2.5 1.3 0.6 0.1
Quinnipiac 10 - 10 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.8 2.5 4.0 5.9 7.2 8.3 9.6 10.2 10.1 9.7 8.5 7.3 5.7 4.0 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.2
Manhattan 10 - 10 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.8 3.9 5.8 7.5 8.9 9.5 10.5 9.8 9.6 8.1 7.0 5.6 3.9 2.4 1.2 0.4 0.1
Fairfield 9 - 11 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.9 4.6 6.1 8.3 9.4 10.0 10.7 9.6 8.8 7.7 6.4 5.1 3.7 2.0 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.0
Canisius 9 - 11 0.2 0.9 2.0 3.6 5.4 7.1 8.8 10.1 10.2 10.2 9.6 8.5 7.1 5.6 4.3 2.8 1.9 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
St. Peter's 8 - 12 0.4 1.3 2.7 4.6 6.3 8.2 9.3 10.5 10.5 9.6 9.1 7.7 6.3 4.8 3.6 2.6 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Niagara 8 - 12 0.4 1.7 3.5 5.7 7.5 9.3 10.0 10.6 10.2 10.0 8.7 6.8 5.2 4.2 2.5 1.7 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Marist 7 - 13 1.1 3.2 5.2 7.7 9.7 10.8 11.0 11.0 9.6 8.6 6.7 5.2 3.8 2.7 1.8 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Iona 36.6% 27.7 7.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Rider 25.6% 18.3 5.9 1.2 0.2 0.0
Monmouth 12.2% 8.1 3.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Siena 9.8% 6.2 2.8 0.7 0.1 0.0
Quinnipiac 9.5% 6.1 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0
Manhattan 9.2% 5.8 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fairfield 5.6% 3.4 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Canisius 4.5% 2.7 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
St. Peter's 3.5% 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0
Niagara 2.7% 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Marist 1.6% 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Iona 27.2% 27.1% 0.1% 16   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.6 4.3 6.8 7.6 6.3 72.8 0.1%
Rider 19.9% 19.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.5 4.5 5.9 5.9 80.1 0.0%
Monmouth 10.5% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 3.2 4.6 89.5 0.0%
Siena 8.8% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.6 4.0 91.2 0.0%
Quinnipiac 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.2 4.2 91.8 0.0%
Manhattan 8.1% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.0 4.1 91.9 0.0%
Fairfield 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.9 95.1 0.0%
Canisius 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.6 95.8 0.0%
St. Peter's 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.2 96.4 0.0%
Niagara 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 2.0 97.1 0.0%
Marist 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.4 98.2 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Iona 27.2% 3.1% 25.9% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rider 19.9% 3.0% 18.6% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Monmouth 10.5% 2.6% 9.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Siena 8.8% 2.3% 7.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Quinnipiac 8.2% 2.5% 7.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Manhattan 8.1% 2.5% 6.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairfield 4.9% 1.7% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Canisius 4.2% 1.7% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Peter's 3.6% 1.5% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara 2.9% 1.3% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marist 1.8% 1.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 88.6% 0.9 11.4 88.6 0.0
2nd Round 5.3% 0.1 94.7 5.3
Sweet Sixteen 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0